Optimism is a wonderful thing, and experience has taught me that viewing the proverbial glass as half full rather than half empty is the better option.

However, optimism tempered with realism is an even better option that comes highly recommended, especially in these unprecedented times facing book publishing.

The COVID-19 pandemic was what the pundits refer to as a “Black Swan” event: a random, highly improbable event with potentially catastrophic implications. With any luck, we will avoid another one of these events for some time, but there’s little doubt that the book industry is facing a string of what those same pundits refer to as “Gray Rhino” events—slowly emerging but obvious threats that are often ignored or minimized by decision-makers.

Like it or not, book publishing is facing unprecedented challenges prompted by a series of environmental changes that were inconceivable 12 months ago. Regardless of one’s politics, the policy changes implemented by the new administration have resulted in an uncertain commercial environment, but an uncertainty that I believe can be successfully navigated with foresight, consistent attention to detail, and a willingness to change the status quo in the interest of near-term survival and long-term success.

What follows is a brief list of the environmental factors combining to create the current environment of uncertainty.

Tariffs

While the book business has thankfully been spared the burden of tariffs, our customers have not. While the full impact has yet to be felt by the reading public, consumers are clearly concerned about the rising cost of living. These concerns will inevitably have a detrimental effect on discretionary spending, which we must expect will affect both domestic book shop and online sales, and every likelihood that there will be similarly disappointing international sales. There is a glimmer of hope that tariffs may become a memory after the November 5 SCOTUS hearing, but to quote Benjamin Franklin, “He who lives on hope dies fasting.”

Rising Unemployment

Recent revisions to the employment numbers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics paint a bleak picture for the economy, and the expectation is that there is little prospect of any near-term recovery—in fact, quite the opposite. While there is anecdotal evidence that suggests book sales increase in tough times as people look to retool their careers, the prospect that this will make a considerable difference in book sales is grasping at straws.

Library Funding/Book Bans

Dramatic reduction of federal support for libraries and librarian concerns about book banning are certain to have a significant detrimental effect on library sales, with the problem being exacerbated by cuts to federal support for the states. All this unquestionably translates to reduced state support for libraries of all kinds as budget dollars are reallocated to more pressing social needs. As if this were not enough, the recent announcement of the sale of Baker & Taylor, a cornerstone of the library business, to ReaderLink, adds another element of significant uncertainty to this sales channel.

Elimination of the Department of Education

The Department of Education provides much-needed support for educational materials, which are at risk of being cut entirely, reduced, or delayed—all of which are certain to have a detrimental effect on the business of books. The effects are already being felt by the K-12 community.

Higher Education Enrollments

Institutions of higher education are facing a 15% enrollment cliff between 2025-2029, combined with reductions in federal support, and waning enrollment of international students does not augur well for this sector.

Amazon Drought

Shortly after we emerged from the pandemic, Amazon stopped buying books for several months while it revisited its inventory and distribution strategies. There is mounting evidence that a similar effort is underway, which underscores the potential risk of over-reliance on a single distribution channel and the need for channel diversification, including building your own robust e-commerce capabilities.

What Can You Do?

The purpose of this list is not to drive you to despair. The industry has faced tough times before, and many organizations have emerged stronger for the experience. We should be optimistic that there are brighter days ahead, but the question remains as to what you can do to make sure your business weathers the proverbial storm.

In the near term, nothing should receive more attention than managing your cash flow and keeping a close eye on the sales channels and channel partners that are critical to your success. While you may think that the current headwinds are a momentary aberration, thinking that you will escape unharmed and doing nothing is a prescription for disaster.

The impact of the environmental factors cited above will vary by sales channel and channel partner, so your sales review should be on a micro rather than macro level. Do not take anything for granted or assume that history is an absolute predictor. The AAP reports that trade sales are down 1.7% through June 2025, with adult fiction down a disconcerting 5%.

Now is the time to tighten your belt and make those changes to improve your long-term prospects and, in fact, emerge stronger for the experience. Here are some suggestions:

1. Revisit your manufacturing and inventory management strategies. Now is the time to embrace digital book manufacturing and avoid over-investing in inventory. Replace the industry’s historic obsession with unit manufacturing cost and focus on total cost of ownership. Manufacturing and fulfillment under one roof can offer significant benefits, reducing cycle time, allowing you to delay inventory investment, and eliminating the time and cost to move inventory from your printer to your fulfillment partner.

2. Pay close attention to both your receivables and payables, especially the former. Book selling is a business where extended payment terms are the rule rather than the exception. Pay attention to the aging of your receivables and adherence to credit limits. If you are already working with a third-party fulfillment provider for credit and collections, make sure they are following up aggressively where payments are late and sticking with the credit limits that you have set. Do not be afraid to reduce credit limits or cut off a slow-paying customer.

3. If you have incremental revenue from rights sales, e-books, royalties, or permissions fees, make sure to give these income streams their due attention. You have a contract with prescribed payment terms; make sure your trading partners keep their part of the bargain.

4. Focus your attention on developing great content, moving as much of your back-office operations to an outsourced provider wherever and whenever possible, and migrating from a fixed to variable cost basis. Your outsourcing costs should be volume-driven based on the resources your business consumes with as small a fixed component as possible.

5. The importance of managing your banking relationships cannot be overstated. Establish a line of credit before you need it. The chances of securing a credit line to navigate the inevitable working capital crunch are slim if your cash flow paints a bleak picture for the bank. Having proof that your business has the cash to service the debt is non-negotiable, and the steps outlined contribute to healthy cash flow.

There are certainly additional steps you can take to increase the chances of successfully emerging from the current challenges, but the list above is enough to keep you busy for a bit.

At the risk of being thought over cautious, I will close with the advice of the great Stoic philosopher, Seneca: “The person who has anticipated the coming of troubles takes away their power when they arrive.”

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